Kansas City Employment Forecast

Released January 6, 2023 (See previous version)

Total employment in the Kansas City, Kansas metropolitan area[1] increased by just shy of 5,900 workers in 2021, a growth of 1.3%. In the first half of 2022, the regional economy added 5,575 as employers to all labor in effors to meet the elevated demand.

The U.S. and global economic conditions were mirrored within the Kansas City area, with firms and households both concerned about inflation and a potential recession. As of November 2022, the regional market added 15,000 since January of the same year. Most of that growth was within the professional and business services sector, with 6,200 jobs.

The economy is forecast to increase by 0.8% in 2023, adding over 4,059 workers, which is a moderating growth rate due to the labor market approaching full employment and the tightening monetary policy. Although global and national market conditions are slowing, the Kansas City area is expected to have one of the strongest growths within the state. Further, the regional market is expected to see even stronger growth in 2024 after the inflation woes subside.

Employment in the production sectors is forecast to increase by 1.5%, led by the growth in the durables goods manufacturing sector. The durable goods sector is expected to add over 830 jobs in 2023 at an annual growth rate of 3.9%. Although this industry segment is facing broader macroeconomic pressures, the region is expected to continue its growth in both automotive and related activities. The non-durables manufacturing, natural resources, and construction subsectors are expected to have more moderate growth.

Trade, transportation, and utilities employment is expected to have flat growth in 2023. The transportation and utilities sector is forecast to be the fastest-growing sector, whereas the retail portion will slow. The slowing growth within the retail sectors is driven primarily by the persistent inflation eroding household purchasing power.

The service sectors are projected to add more than 2,566 jobs, growing 1.0%. The professional & business is projected to lead the growth in 2023. The slowest industry within this segment is the financial sector, which is anticipated to add 174 jobs over the next year.